What to watch for in today's elections....

First of all, regardless as to who you would like to see elected for whatever reason, please GO OUT AND VOTE TODAY if you have not already done so.

The President
With a struggling economy that includes unemployment at nearly 8% (much more if you include the underemployed), and a massive budget deficit, this should be a cake-walk for Republicans in spite of the fact that our current economic situation is largely the result of Republican policies instituted earlier in the decade (tax cuts, 2 unpaid for wars, deregulation of financial institutions, an unpaid for prescription drug program).

But the Republicans only 'viable' candidate (Tim Pawlenty) failed to gain any traction in the primaries due partially to his timidness as well the party having lurched far to the right courtesy of the 'tea-party' faction. Devoid of any real candidates, the Republicans settled on the spineless one ~ Mitt Romney. To this day, I still can't understand why he is running for President (other than to achieve that which his father could not) and what he hopes to accomplish if elected. Do you?

Despite the fact that all the media-heads are saying this will be a nail-biting election that could 'come down to the wire", I predict the follies will end early.

The first polls close at 4:00 p.m. PST, and the most important one to watch (overall but especially during this time period) is VIRGINIA. It's likely to be labeled "too close to call" but if they say it's "too early to call" that could be a good sign for Obama.

Ohio polls close at 4:30 and, if Obama wins Ohio and Virginia, absent a massive last-minute switchover in the rust belt (Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa) he WILL be reelected. That's because Romney has no path to victory without Ohio and either Virginia or the rust belt states (I don't consider Pennsylvania to be 'in play' regardless as to what you may have heard recently. My guess is the Presidential election will be over at 6:20 when Ohio and Virginia will be called for Obama.

Here's my prediction of how the electoral map will look like in the morning.



The state that I view as most likely to not turn out as predicted is Virginia (followed closely by Colorado, which could go blue).

The Senate
On the heals of their victories in 2010, Republicans were VERY optimistic about recapturing the Senate this time around. In addition to the above-referenced economic conditions, Republicans also have 2 additional advantages headed into this election cycle: 1) only 10 of the 33 seats up for election are currently held by Republicans; and, 2) 7 of the Democrats currently holding the seat decided not to run for reelection.

Currently, the Democrats hold 53 seats (including the 2 Independents who caucus with the Dems). So, the Republicans need a net gain of 4 seats. The retirement of Conrad and Nelson from the 'bright red' states of N.D. and Nebraska, coupled with the problem that McCaskill faced in Missouri, Tester in Montana and Kaine in Virginia, Republicans should have had a pretty easy time winning over the Senate.

But then the 'tea-baggers' stepped in and nominated Todd Akin in Missouri and Richard Mourdock in Indiana thereby GIVING the Democrats 2 seats that they rightfully should have lost. Add to that a pretty bad showings by Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin and Connie Mack in Florida, a strong showing by Tester in Montana and a very competitive race but on by Kain in Virginia and, at this point, the Republicans have VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE at taking back the Senate. My guess is the Republicans will not only not gain seats, but we are looking at a Senate of 54-46 in the morning.

Other races of interest:
California Proposition 37 - Look for California to become the first state to require labeling on genetically engineered food. It will pass by a landslide despite the millions spent in opposition biotechnology companies like Monsanto and DuPont.

Maine Question 1 - Votes to allow same-sex marriages have been on state ballots some 32 times so far. They have failed each and every time, including in Maine in 2009. Look for Maine to become the first state to allow same-sex marriage based upon a referendum. It is possible that Washington will follow suite when their election results are released later in the day.

Washington Initiative 502 - Washington, Colorado and Oregon all have initiatives on the ballot to legalize marijuana. While I have my doubts with respect to Oregon and Colorado, Washington may become the first state to legalize marijuana.

Michigan Proposal 1 - Last year, the Michigan Legislature passed Public Act 4, which allows the Governor to declare an "emergency" and thereby appoint a manager who will take over all functions of a local government. Proposal 1 would severely limit the Governor's right to appoint a manager and further limits the power said manager would have. Look for Proposal 1 to pass thereby nullifying what I believe to be one of the most undemocratic laws ever passed in the U.S.....

Daniel, so you're confident about Prop 37 passing? I've been really nervous about this one, it is more important to me than the presedential election and will have more long-term consequences. The polls say it is too close to call, so I hope you are correct about it passing easily. As they say, "As California goes, so goes the nation..." Let's hope that California can once again pave the way for the rest to follow!

For anyone reading this: PLEASE GO TO THE POLLS AND VOTE YES ON 37!

Thank you.

I-502 will most likely pass... everyone I know is voting "Yes" (besides me, and only because of the messed up law enforcement provisions written in... like the part that allows the arresting officer's report to be used as ADMISSIBLE EVIDENCE in DUI cases! what the @#$%&!!!), even my father and other VERY conservative types are voting 'Yes' on it along with their Vote for Romney. But yeah, it looks like it's going to pass.

My dads the same way BZM

So as my business partner was leaving the office today he looked at me and said well i sure hope that Romney wins or you and I are going to be paying out the ass in taxes. He knows who I am voting for but tries to persuade me by using taxes against me. WTF. That seems to me the only reason people vote for Romney cause they can save money ontheir taxes. It is stupid. Really bothers me. OBAMA 2012

Rossta, thats basically a baldfaced lie, either president will preside over increased taxes. What has mystified me about republicans is that they seem decent at scaring the populace and getting elected, but the policies they bring aren't even good for THEM. Obama has presided over a massive run up in the stock market, very healthy business earnings, he has not managed to put a huge dent in unemployemnt, but cmon, republicans don't care about unemployement....as far as i can tell, the right should love Obama. But there's that one sticking point that he can't change....his color. All those illogical, birth certificate, foreigner, college transcript accusations are coded substitutes for racism.

Love that reggae!

Don't forget to watch voting machines that cheat...
[www.slate.com]

Well Said Nomo. Thanks for sharing.

Quote

Rossta, thats basically a baldfaced lie, either president will preside over increased taxes.

Well, I agree with you Carl that it is a baldface lie, but your statement doesn't comport with the truth either.

The TRUTH is that, contrary to what you hear from the right, to my knowledge, the only tax increase under Obama was the tobacco tax bill that he signed one month after being in office (which is partially responsible for their being 3 million less smokers today). On the other hand, Obama has LOWERED many taxes: Making Work Pay tax credit, Alternative Minimum Tax, tax credits to promote renewable energy, child tax credit, tax credit for low-income college students, payroll tax cut. Please show me where Obama has raised any other taxes.

And the ONLY tax Obama is currently seeking to raise is the eliminate the Bush tax cuts for people making more than 200K per year (though I believe ALL the bush tax cuts should be eliminated). So Rossta, please ask your 'business partner' when you can anticipate being put in the 'over 200K/year tax bracket' so that you can start paying those increased taxes he spoke of yesterday......

So, 2 states voted to legalize marijuana yesterday, 3 states voted to approve of same-sex marriage, the Senate has more democrats than it did yesterday (including the first openly gay senator), Michigan's 'emergeny manager' law was curtailed and Eric Mar remains my supervisor. All and all a very good night in spite of the loss of prop 37 and Michelle Bachmann barely ecking out reelection.

Among the 'highlights' for me was seeing Joe Walsh get booted out by Tammy Duckworth, having Allen Grayson return to congress, and seeing a REAL LION ~ Elizabeth Warren, fill Senator Kennedy's seat in the Senate.

And here are 5 races I'm still keeping an eye on....

My business partner nets about 250k a year, so he is in that bracket but I dont feel sorry for him. Tax his ass, He makes more than enough money. Ownes homes in Bend, Portland and owns a restaurant in Bend, OR. Goes on vacations every other month. He has plenty of money to help out America.

Maybe it was wishful thinking on my part, i wasn't sugggesting higher taxes for all. And i wasn't suggesting that Obama has raised taxes in the past, they have certainly been lowered. But it's my opinion that if taxes don't rise during Obama's coming term the deficit will have exploded even worse. I would be happy to pay increased taxes as part of a general increase. I thought the Bush tax cuts were a mistake from the get go. I'm not one who believes the right wing story about 'job creators'.

Love that reggae!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/07/2012 08:04AM by nomotrouble.

But Tyler, if your 'partner' said "you and I are going to be paying out the ass in taxes", then you should ask him when you can expect the raise necessary to effectuate that. If he's married, then his taxes won't go up a dime. If not, then he's looking at a whooping tax increase of $2,300....

yes Daniel, while I am seriously bummed (and angry) that Prop 37 failed, i agree with you that the election of Elizabeth Warren is very positive! I really like her energy and enthusiasm!

Well I am 100% commission based as is he. I control how much money I make. What my partner did for me was pull me out of my job as a business manager of a RV dealership and bring me into his business and set me up to succeed. He expects me to have that kind of money coming in during Obama's next four year term. So that is why he said "you and I" He has been doing this for 18 years, me 7 months. Even if I was at that 200k a year level now I would be down to be taxed heavy. He is married and owns the restaurant that doesnt make much and he uses it to write off our company. Obama needs to tax the rich to balance out the economy IMO. But politics is new to me, just started reading and paying attention in the last 6 months. But really enjoy knowing how are country runs and I am looking forward to learning more and seeing how I can help out my county, state and country.